How Donald Trump Achieved a Major Step in Gaza But Faces Challenges Regarding Vladimir Putin Concerning Ukraine
Reports of an upcoming American-Russian presidential summit have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.
Only a few days after Donald Trump announced he planned to meet Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.
A preliminary get-together by the both countries' leading diplomats has been cancelled, as well.
"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump told the press at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I will observe what transpires."
- Donald Trump states he did not want a 'unproductive session' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin postponed
- Letdown in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky departs White House empty-handed
The on-again, off-again meeting is just the latest development in the president's efforts to mediate an end to hostilities in the Eastern European nation – a topic of increased attention for the US president after he orchestrated a truce and hostage release agreement in Gaza.
While making remarks in the North African country recently to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, Trump addressed Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.
"It is essential to get Russia done," he declared.
However, the circumstances that converged to make a Middle East success achievable for the negotiation team may be difficult to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for nearing four years.
Less Leverage
According to the lead negotiator, the crucial element to unlocking a deal was the Israeli government's decision to strike Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a move that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but gave Trump leverage to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
Trump gained from a history of siding with the Israeli state dating back to his initial presidency, including his decision to move the US embassy to the contested city, to alter America's position on the legality of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, in recent times, his support for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.
The US president, actually, is better regarded among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a situation that provided him with unique influence over the nation's head.
Combine the president's connections in politics and business to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to force an agreement.
In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, the president has significantly reduced leverage. Over the past nine months, he has vacillated between attempts to pressure Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.
The US leader has threatened to enact new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that such actions could disrupt the world's financial stability and intensify the war.
Meanwhile, the US leader has criticized openly Zelensky, temporarily cutting off information exchange with Ukraine and pausing weapon deliveries to the nation - only to then back off in the face of concerned European allies who caution a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the whole area.
The president often boasts about his skill to sit down and negotiate agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to move the war any nearer a resolution.
The Russian president may in fact be exploiting Trump's desire for a deal – and faith in direct negotiations - as a means of manipulating him.
In July, Russia's leader consented to a summit in Alaska just as it appeared likely that Trump would sign off on legislative penalties backed by Senate Republicans. That legislation was subsequently delayed.
Recently, as news emerged that the US administration was considering seriously shipping long-range missiles and air defense systems to Ukraine, the president of Russia called the US president who then promoted the potential summit in Hungary.
The following day, the president welcomed Zelensky at the White House, but left empty-handed after a allegedly strained discussion.
Trump maintained that he was not being played by Putin.
"As you are aware, I have been manipulated all my life by the best of them, and I emerged really well," he said.
However the Ukrainian leader subsequently made note of the timeline of developments.
"As soon as the issue of advanced weaponry became a little further away for Ukraine – for Ukraine – the Russian side quickly became less engaged in diplomacy," he said.
So, in a short period, Trump has bounced from considering the idea of sending missiles to Ukraine to organizing a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and confidentially pressuring the Ukrainian president to surrender the entire Donbas region – even land Russian forces has been failed to capture.
He has finally decided on advocating a truce along current battle lines – something Russia has refused to accept.
On the campaign trail previously, Trump vowed that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has since discarded that commitment, admitting that ending the war is proving harder than he anticipated.
It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his authority – and the difficulty of finding a peace plan when both parties wants, or can afford to, cease hostilities.