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Two days to go.

The English side's first Test in Australia gets under way on Friday morning.

With the help of CricViz, we examine where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be determined.

It’s challenging to score runs, isn't it?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are bothering to turn up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has focused on the perceived difficulty of scoring runs, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

When it comes to playing in Australian conditions, particularly against pace bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and variable bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles describes the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing bowling in this country.

After the new ball's introduction, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australian pace attack?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit largely intact, while the home side are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring problem.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the success and robustness of the 'big three'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 dismissals in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

Aside from Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have stepped up.

Michael Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in domestic Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia went into a home match without Cummins and Hazlewood, and lost, was in 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the pair, they have won by a combined 694 runs, featuring a win against England in Adelaide previously.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, outcomes have not been affected – The tourists should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England could not find an opening batsman to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners faster than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Ever since Duckett and Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a factor in Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.

The Kent man, who famously struck the first ball of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the game for Australia.

His average increases when the pace increases.

In comparison, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five various openers in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an left-handed opening pair.

It is not just the opening pair that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the WTC final, then left out completely.

Domestic form has earned him a recall, probably returning to number three.

In seven Tests in the current year, Australia's top three average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have performed worse.

Battle of Spin

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to play the game.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a somewhat successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Lyon at the forefront, but spin bowling has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, spinners have averaged almost 44 in this country, albeit Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is physically getting on to bowl.

Remember the effectiveness of pace bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with ball in hand.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against India, it was half that number.

Tests in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was introduced, meaning Lyon has fewer opportunities to make an impact.

Right place, right time?

England have a depressing habit of being defeated in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

Traditionally, the series began in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide.

England have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a venue England have visited 14 times since 1970 and emerged victorious only one time, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the first three stops on the tour are the same, only in a rearranged order and under different circumstances.

Perth hosts an series opener for the first occasion, not at the famous Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the visitors tackle with no historical baggage.

The Gabba is the venue for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia played a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by the West Indies.

Similarly, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the usual day-night venue Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have secured victory in four out of five matches played at Perth Stadium, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Every Test at the new ground has been claimed by the team batting first.

England often overthink floodlit Tests, when data indicate the pink ball does not perform much differently from its traditional red ball.

The challenge in {day-night matches|